The Woolcock Institute of Medical Research

New wastewater analysis has revealed a 20 percent increase in nicotine consumption across Australia, but researchers say the data may point to a rise in vaping as much as smoking.

Speaking on Melbourne radio station 3AW last week, our Respiratory Cellular and Molecular Biology research leader Distinguished Professor Brian Oliver said nicotine and its metabolites detected in wastewater had risen sharply, indicating an increase in the use of nicotine products nationwide.

However, Professor Oliver cautioned against attributing the increase solely to cigarettes or the illicit tobacco market.

“What we can tell with a degree of certainty is the amount of nicotine in wastewater,” he said.

While estimates suggest up to 80 per cent of cigarettes consumed in Australia may now be illegal imports, Professor Oliver said wastewater testing cannot determine whether nicotine comes from legal tobacco, illicit tobacco or vaping products.

He said the rise may in part reflect the growing popularity of e-cigarettes, which could be contributing more to nicotine consumption than current estimates suggest.

“If you look at the number of people vaping, it’s not too dissimilar to the number of people smoking,” he said.

Professor Oliver said vaping rates have often been underestimated when interpreting nicotine data, making it difficult to draw clear conclusions about smoking trends alone. At the same time, he warned the illicit nicotine market poses significant health risks because consumers often have no way of knowing what products contain.

“The reality is with anything that’s illegal, we’ve got no idea what’s in it,” he said.

He explained that nicotine is now widely and cheaply manufactured synthetically, meaning counterfeit cigarettes can be made without using tobacco leaf.

“If you wanted to make a counterfeit cigarette, you don’t actually need the tobacco leaf to start off with because the nicotine is so cheap,” he said.

Professor Oliver said researchers had demonstrated how easily non-tobacco plant matter could mimic cigarettes, rolling leaves collected outside their laboratory into cigarette-like products. Once nicotine is added, he said, smokers may be unable to tell the difference.

Health experts say the findings underline the complexity of Australia’s nicotine market, with illicit tobacco and vaping both playing a growing role.

Professor Oliver said the vaping market in particular remained largely unregulated, describing it as “the Wild West”.

Find out more

• Our Respiratory Cellular and Molecular Biology research group
• Distinguished Professor Brian Oliver